An artificial exercise, you tell me, because I am not a Turk! In part you would be right, but it is an exercise that I have realized a number of times in Turkey, as part of several conferences. With hope of proving wrong the Turkish proverb "the wise man does not say what he knows, the buffoon knows not what he says," the following is what I would tell my people if I was a Turkish leader.

The end of 2004 was a huge victory for our people and our country. With the agreement from the EU to begin accession negotiations by the end of 2005, we have finally been recognized as equals with the Europeans. This decision, which demonstrates our resolve to continue to push our country along the road towards greater democracy, greater human rights, greater secularism, a market economy, and greater liberty, is without contest a historic moment for our people; as it is for the European Union proving the universality of its principles and its refusal to exclude based on religious or cultural motivations.

Never the less, as on the eve of all victories, it is essential that we think about consequences, and the choices that are now open to us, for victory is nothing other than a means of assuring more choices for the future. Today, Turkey is recognized without contest as European by its peers in the EU. Tomorrow what will it be? What do we want to be, as Turks, always strong throughout our brilliant history having forever changed the world?

We have left the path imposed upon us by the defeat of the Ottoman Empire, a path that had reduced us to the role of being a marginal actor, with its empire striped, with no perspective to the East, and to the north because of the Cold War, confronted with an unstable Middle East to the South, viewed as an enemy by our Greek neighbors, and as a military ally but not a partner by the Western Europeans.

It would have taken us several decades but today with this decision, a decision that had potentially opened the doors to the European Union, our country, our people have definitively escaped this trap that history had created for us. The fall of communism open the doors to the North and to the East; reconciliation with Greece enabled us to overcome one of the greatest obstacles on the road towards the West; and the brutal change of events currently taking place in the Middle East, although unpredictable to date, have left us as one of the most important powers in the region. Concurrently, the Iraqi crisis has led a large number of countries throughout the world, including our own, to distance themselves from the United States, creating a sustainable margin of maneuverability with respect to our relations with Washington. The changes in our relations with the EU are only a small example of the more vast geopolitical changes that have taken place in the world over the past decade. And it is the future of our country that we must build in the decade to come. As was the case in 1910/1920, it is the Turkey's place in the world for the next century that will be decided by the decisions that we make from now until 2010/2020.

As such, we must confront the choice to join the European Union like the rest have. We must not let ourselves be fooled by our imaginations because the true winner is he who maintains a purity of thought on the eve of victory. The path towards the European Union is long, difficult and filled with potential pitfalls. We know that their are powerful political forces that remain contrary to the idea of our joining the European Union. We have followed the rise of xenophobia and extremist movements throughout the EU and we should not doubt the influence that this trends have over the current European leaders. In one word, the immediate decision confronting the EU, if it acknowledges the enormous efforts we have made in order to put our country on the road to political modernity, is not a "free ticket" giving us entry into the European Union tomorrow. In fact, we cannot predict whether or not we will succeed or not in entering the EU one day; nor can we predict the horizon, be it 10, 20, 30 years or more. We owe it to ourselves to be optimistic but at the same time must acknowledge that the increasing democratization of the European Union, which broadens the role of the people notably by means of referendum on the most important European subjects, will lead to referenda in almost every country in the EU concerning Turkey's prospective entry. We are thus confronted with an enormous uncertainty even if we accomplish those conditions that the EU has imposed. Furthermore, this problem will be amplified if the EU creates a new political vision to deal with its neighbors, like Russia and Ukraine. Let’s us not underestimate the pressure that will be exercised upon us in order to push us towards this new neighborhood policy rather than full membership to the EU. And let us not ignore a priori the possibility of a new form of partnership that maybe less complex and less constraining than the road to accession. Because the road to accession is going to be very difficult and we may try to perpetually join a European Union that escapes just as we approach. For this reason, we should think beginning tomorrow about some other form of relations with the EU, similar to others: Norway, Iceland, Switzerland, or Russia. We should no longer have an inferiority complex vis-à-vis the EU, nor should we have a false understanding of what it really is. As has always been the case during its glorious history, the Turkish people and only the Turkish people, should create the road that will lead us to a better future. The EU is now a choice that exists; but it is not because it is exists that it is necessarily the best. Only the future of the negotiations will show us the truth.

The conditions for accession will be a central element in following years for the future of our country. The European Union has dictated a set of clear and constraining rules that we must follow in order to join. This is reflection of the courageous decision made recently by the Commission and soon to be made by the Council. Our country will be directly affected, starting in 2005, by the difficulties of adapting to the EU in all its dimensions be they economic, political, or social. We are going to have to adapt in almost all manners conceivable. And let this be clear: let us not dream in vain for the EU to adapt to us. We are asking to join them, and not the opposite. They are in control of the accession process to their club, not us. The process will be complex and painful. The examples proffered by the new Member-States are inspiring. Especially, as in our case, the EU will be much less generous. Those funds distributed during this past enlargement were already significantly reduced compared to those of the 80s. But if we choose this path, I have no doubt that we will succeed.

However, we will remain wary of attempts at subverting our people and our national interests that will remain essential to our people. As with all things concerning the construction of the future, we have to maintain an open mind as to all of the alternatives in case the path we chose proves to be insurmountable or if it entails conditions unacceptable to our national identity. We want to join the EU to make us stronger, not to lose ourselves. And this is why our strategy today has succeeded, where others until now have failed. We have significantly strengthened Turkish democracy, and it is for this reason that we have received the positive welcoming from our European brothers. But democracy is demanding. Let us not hide the fact that the future will require us to conform to the democratic model promoted by the European Union. No power will escape its democratic control for long. In one word, by the end of this decade, our powerful army will have to confine itself to the defense of our country, thereby abandoning all of the positions, without exception, that it occupies in the civil affairs of our country. If not, the European dream will be over.

In parallel, let us not be naïf, the evolution of democracy in our country will lead to freedom of speech, and a flowering of new ideas as to the future of our people, that for centuries have been impossible to imagine. Who knows what kind of future our children will wish for when they come of age? In fine, they will have the final say in 20 or 30 years.

Other roads could present themselves. We are currently recognized as the modern country that our founding father, Atatürk, dreamed of. In his time, being modern was necessarily synonymous with being European. Today, it is namely to be European. Who knows what it will be tomorrow? In conclusion, I will choose to follow only those paths that a majority of the Turkish people wish to follow. Our current victory, with the opening of negotiations towards EU accession, is first and foremost a victory for democracy. Tomorrow it will be that which our people decide for it to be; and not that which is imposed on us by others. Tomorrow will be judged by our people in function of our direct interests. The road that awaits us is open to us. Accession to the EU is not fate, but a choice. As with all choices, it will be constantly reevaluated on our side as well (and not only by Brussels) in relation to the results and any new occurrences. If the road towards accession is a road that leads to our country being annexed by Brussels, constraining our people, forcing our culture to conform to the culture of Western Europe, then we must search for another road, one based on equal relations between equal partners. Nothing is decided. Everything remains to be written. But one thing is certain: this new page in the glorious history of the Turkish people will be written by all Turks together.

Paris,
Franck Biancheri