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TRANSATLANTIC RELATIONS BETWEEN
THE UNITED STATES AND THE EU IN 2020

ANTICIPATION AND THE NEW WORLD ORDER
A SCENARIO APPROACH


by Simon Parais : Student, Elizabethtown College PA, USA / European Studies Department Daniel Berzsenyi College


17/01/2005

Economic dimension

6. - U.S. and the EU

The U.S. has the leading economy in the world; however the GDP growth is slower than in China, however faster than in the EU or in Japan. The highest purchasing power in the world today is in the European Union and this could be a basis for the prosperity of European economy in the future as well.
The most important economic issue in this decade was the new transatlantic customs union which boosted both US and EU economies to a huge extent from 2015. Under this initiative, a barrier-free transatlantic market had been introduced in order to increase mutual economical interests and at the same time helping to tie interests closer. Vis-á-vis this outstanding development there is a need for labor force to increase production. Also more women in the labor industry, the need for a delayed retirement and the annual 600.000 immigrants are the weak part of European economy. Enterprise and education are not at the necessary level required by organizations. Furthermore, EU citizens are living longer and better, which in turn increases the pensions and health costs. It is not only the EU, though, that confronts economic challenges and an aging population that will place health insurance, unemployment and pension schemes under further strain, but also the United States, but because of having control over key important oil fields in the Middle East (especially in Iraq), the U.S. economy will stay the strongest in the near future as well.
As experts pointed out in 2004 the two keys to maintain transatlantic relations between the U.S. and EU were the fiscal deficit of the U.S. and the accomplishment of the goals of the Lisbon strategy. Due to continuous European FDI coming into the U.S., the costs of the fight against terrorism had been financed without a considerable recession in the U.S. economy and because of the effective initiatives of the Barroso Commission in 2006; the fading Lisbon strategy got new impetus.

 

7. Environment

This is the field where in 2020 the European Union has a clear lead over every other country in the world. Signing of the Kyoto Treaty was the most important step as far as protecting the environment is considered and the EU has huge merit in lobbying for it. Furthermore, under the Hydrogen Economy Development Scheme the EU and the U.S. together agreed on the use of hydrogen cars, however, current analyses shows that despite all success in this field because of the spiral and treshold effects (nature can change in a very flexible way, but after it reaches a certain level, there is no way back), future problems seem extremely difficult to tackle. Nevertheless, EU has a leading edge in waste management and generally environment as a new business area. Until 2010 environmental issues caused a lot of problems in transatlantic relations, but shortly after the U.S. recognized that it is not only its crucial mid-term goal, but also that this is brand new area of business, protecting environment became a common interest.

Simon Parais
ELIZABETHTOWN COLLEGE
ELIZABETHTOWN, PA, USA
NOVEMBER 2004

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