The
war in Iraq is one of the modern events that have been analyzed
and interpreted most. Many analysts, politicians, economists
and lawyers were trying to understand its causes and to predict
how long it is going to take and what kind of impact it will
have on the rest of the world. Even today, some good months
since the end of the hostilities predictions are still being
made, about the way in which the war has influenced this or
that policy or a certain region.
Talking
about the EU in the context of the war in Iraq feels a bit
strange. First of all, the EU as an entity did not participate
in the war itself. There wasn't even a clear position put
forward by Brussels. There were different official or more
personal positions coming from the Parliament, form the Commission
and the individual members of the Council (a.k.a. Prime Ministers),
positions that were as different as possible. So the EU as
a whole was not an active player in the conflict. Some of
the EU member states such as the UK or Spain took part in
the hostilities, others like France and Germany, in theory,
opposed the war, but the EU as a whole did not take part in
the war on Iraq.
Secondly
the debate that appeared in the EU as such, regarding the
impact of the war on the union is at least at the first glance
extremely strange. We did not see in the US any discussion
on the level of cooperation between US states and whether
it changed or not after the war. In the US there were people
opposed to the war, including state governors, but none of
them actually went as far as to question the collaboration
of that specific state with the rest of the US. This comes
to prove that the EU as an entity is not yet mature enough
to get over its national policy and to create an all encompassing
union view. The fact that we are still afraid that a limited,
but unfortunately pretty frequent, event such as a war can
actually endanger the EU structure comes to show how weak
the union is, and what a long way we still have to go from
now on.
The
strength of the union is another favorite topic among analysts
later. Starting from the show put on by experienced and, let's
say it franc, sneaky politicians such as Chirac, Blair or
Berlusconi, entire armadas of analyst try to understand what
is going on the EU. These analysts start by over interpreting
every look, every gesture, and every shake-hand hoping to
be able to derive from here the level of relations between
the member states. That's why we hear nowadays messages such
as "Chirac and Blair shook-hands, it means that the relations
between the UK and France are getting better, it means that
the war didn't have such devastating effects after all, etc."
But
what these analysts are forgetting is that Chirac and Blair
are mortal, they are in office for a certain period and afterwards
they are history. The positions taken by the politicians are
positions for the moment, to suit a certain cause. Does anybody
really remember what an EU-skeptic John Major was? No, not
really, it has been long forgotten and it can be found only
in the history books nowadays. Or, did anybody really believe
that Schroeder was so much opposed to the war? No, of course
not, it was mainly a campaign move. The point is that politicians
tend to do things that suit their short term goals. While
what really defines the power of the EU is not the politicians
or the Brussels machinery, it is the people, the simple citizens
that want this Union to succeed, and won't let it go off the
tracks because or some sporadic even or some politician with
a flamboyant ego.
And
it is the people again that will make sure that the EU is
moving into the desired direction. The greatest gain of the
EU after the war in Iraq is, by far, the shout of the people
who started asking for a common foreign policy. Till not long
ago the idea of a Common Foreign and Security Policy was nothing
more than a pompous name given to the image of a non existent
structure. Now, after the war, it is clear that in the future
we'll talk about a common policy, a legitimate common policy,
a policy born out of desire of the people of speaking with
only one voice, of being represented by one person.
Maybe
the level of liking and trusting the other states decreased.
The latest polls show the dislike of the British for the French
and Germans has hit record levels. However there is one thing
that unites the majority of the EU citizens. That is their
legitimate desire to have a real common policy when it comes
to representing the EU on the international stage. It is unbelievable
to see how people that ten years ago would have never said
anything good about the EU are now actually asking for the
EU to speak with one voice, to have one representation to
the outside.
The
reasons for their desire might be different. Some of them
might want to see the EU as a counterbalance to the US, Russia
and all the other super-powers. Others might have a more integrationist
approach towards international relations, seeing the EU cooperate
and decide on policies together with the big players. Others
yet might just want the supremacy of the big EU countries
over the small ones. However, due to all these reasons, and
many others the citizens of the EU have realized that having
one coherent external policy for the whole union is crucial
right now.
We
can try for hours to analyze the behavior of the politicians
and from there to derive the level of cooperation between
their states. We can try to make predictions on how these
states will act and cooperate in the future. They will all
remain at the level of predictions. Still, one thing changed
for sure in the EU. And that is the desire of the EU citizens
to have a common foreign policy. Maybe the war in Iraq brought
a lot of problems for the Europeans. Maybe it deepened some
divisions between the different nations, divisions that were
there, and is better that they are dealt with rather than
ignored.
But
Iraq also opened the eyes of the Europeans over how much they
need a common foreign policy. It made them realize that this
common feature was not put in practice by Brussels. Let's
just hope that the new European Foreign Minister will be installed
soon and that he or she will live up to the expectations.
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